Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
