A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
